Margulan-errors-summary-all-en

Lesson 1: "Success is unique, mistakes are typical."

Success depends on unique circumstances that cannot be replicated. Therefore, no one can guarantee success.

1. **Definition of Mistake**: A mistake is a deviation from the expected result or process, which can lead to undesirable consequences.

2. **Success vs. Mistakes**:
   - Success is unique and depends on a multitude of non-reproducible factors.
   - Mistakes, on the other hand, are often typical and can be avoided.

3. **Significance of Mistakes**: 
   - Mistakes are inevitable and are a part of progress.
   - Any forward movement carries the risk of making a mistake.

4. **Mistakes and Decisions**: 
   - Mistakes are the results of our decisions.
   - By not making decisions, we also risk making mistakes.

5. **Axioms of Decision Making**: 
   - Life is a continuous chain of decisions.
   - By not making decisions, we leave everything as it is.
   - Every choice determines where to direct resources.
   - Past decisions are reflected in the present, current decisions determine the future.

6. **Mistakes in Business**: 
   - Companies often go bankrupt because of their mistakes, not because of competitors.

Lesson 2: "What is a mistake?".

1. **Definition of Mistake**: A mistake is any deviation of the result or process from the expected, which can distance you from your goal.

2. **Types of Mistakes**:
   - Incorrect result: the difference between the expected and actual result.
   - Incorrect process: unintentional deviation from the correct actions.

3. **Importance of Control**: To prevent mistakes, it's essential to control the process and follow a pre-defined plan.

4. **Reasons for Incorrect Process**: 
   - Incorrectly defined plan or standard.
   - Non-compliance with the plan or standard.

5. **Mistakes and Goals**: Any mistake distances you from your goals and can derail your path to achieving them.

6. **Mistakes vs. Lies**: A mistake is perceived as truth initially, unlike a lie.

7. **Problems in Confidence**: Problems arise when people are confident in their knowledge, only to find out later that they were mistaken.

8. **Scientific View on Mistakes**: 
   - It's impossible to predict the future accurately.
   - You can only control your actions.

9. **Conclusion**: Manage your actions so that in the event of an adverse future, you always have minimal damage and maximum benefit in the case of a favorable event.

Lesson 3: "The decision-making process and grouping mistakes in achieving goals".

1. **Definition of Mistake**: A mistake is a deviation from the expected result or process, which can lead to undesirable consequences. All mistakes occur at the moment of decision-making.

2. **Decision Making Process**:
   - Stages before making a decision.
   - The moment of decision-making.
   - Steps after making a decision.
   - The result of the decision and its analysis.

3. **Risks and Probabilities**: Between the decision and the result, there are chances and risks that can influence the outcome.

4. **Typical Mistakes in Achieving Goals**:
   - Mistakes in goal setting.
   - Absence or vagueness of a plan.
   - Not following one's plan.
   - Lack of control and analysis of deviations.

5. **Importance of Clarity in Goals**: A goal should be specific, measurable, achievable, motivating, and time-bound.

6. **Conclusion**: To minimize mistakes, it's essential to clearly understand your goals, have a plan, follow it, and analyze the results.

Lesson 4: "Major blocks of mistakes and their impact on achieving goals".

When planning actions, it's necessary to consider all these forces and also develop strategies to reduce opposition, enhance support, and attract interactive forces.

1. **Three Blocks of Mistakes**:
   - Thinking Mistakes: Most mistakes occur due to incorrect thinking. This includes:
     - Mistakes in goal setting.
     - Incorrect mental attitudes.
     - Mistakes in calculations and understanding.
   - Action/Inaction Mistakes: Even with correct thinking, one needs to act. Mistakes can arise from incorrect or missing actions.
   - Contextual Mistakes: After considering thinking and action mistakes, external factors such as time, environment, and other people must be taken into account.

2. **Impact on the Surrounding World**: Your actions or inactions always influence the surrounding world, causing various reactions.

3. **Three Forces of Impact**: 
   - Opposition: forces that resist your actions.
   - Support: forces that support you.
   - Interaction: neutral forces that can be drawn to your side.

4. **Decision Making**: 
   - When making a decision, you always make two decisions:
     1. What to focus your resources on.
     2. What to give up.

5. **Mistakes in Perception and Analysis**: 
   - **Importance of Perception**: Perception plays a critical role in the decision-making process as it shapes our understanding of the situation and influences our next decision. It also helps evaluate results and form new attitudes towards events, pushing us towards new decisions.
   - **Factors Influencing Perception**: Our perception can be distorted by various factors, including our character, temperament, education, personal experience, mood, time of day, and season of the year.

6. **Examples of Cognitive Biases**: 
     - **Survivorship Bias**: Ignoring hidden data can lead to incorrect conclusions and mistakes, as demonstrated by the analysis of bomber damage during World War II.
     - **Success and Failure**: Success is unique, while mistakes are often typical. For every successful individual, there are thousands who tried but did not succeed.

7. **Ways to Minimize Perception Errors**: Although it's impossible to completely avoid perception errors, their negative impact can be minimized by being aware of potential cognitive biases and misconceptions.

8. **Analysis and Understanding of Mistakes**.
   - **Dunning-Kruger Effect**: Low-skilled individuals often don't recognize their mistakes due to their limited knowledge and experience.
   - **Judging Decisions by Outcomes**: People tend to judge the correctness of their decisions based on the final result, not the decision-making process, which can lead to incorrect conclusions and repeating mistakes.
   - **Rewarding Luck, Not Effort**: It's important to analyze the reasons for success or failure before rewarding or punishing to avoid injustice and incorrect conclusions.

9. **Creating Algorithms and Patterns to Prevent Mistakes**: Many entrepreneurs don't strive to analyze their mistakes and create strategies to prevent repeating them in the future.

10. **Irreversible Mistakes and Their Consequences**: Avoid mistakes with irreversible consequences and repeating the same mistakes.

11. **Importance of Analysis and Learning from Mistakes**: Mistakes can become lessons if the right conclusions are drawn and strategies are created to prevent repetition in the future.

12. **Final Recommendations**: 
     1. Don't strive to completely avoid mistakes, as it's impossible.
     2. Don't be afraid to make mistakes.
     3. Avoid mistakes with irreversible consequences.
     4. Avoid repeating the same mistakes.
     5. Aim to create algorithms and patterns to prevent future mistakes.

**Lesson Five: Minimizing Mistakes**
- **Introduction**:
  - Understanding mistakes and their minimization.
  - Proper decision-making process.
  - Behavior algorithm for minimizing mistakes.

**Casino Example**:
- **Initial Conditions**:
  - Starting capital: $1000.
  - Main goal: maximize winnings.
  - Additional goal: win a Mercedes car.
  - Obligation: place bets all evening.

- **Strategy Without Additional Information**:
  - Tendency towards risk and large bets.

- **Strategy Considering Additional Information**:
  - Adaptation to new conditions.
  - Minimizing risks through small bets.
  - Survival goal.

- **Conclusions from the Example**:
  - Adapting strategy to new information.
  - Importance of staying in the game for success.
  - Increasing the number of attempts increases chances of success.

**Principles of Successful Business Participation**:

- **Survival**: 
  - Place small bets.
  - Stay in the game.
  - Understand the contradiction: Don't try to achieve everything at once.
  - Solution: Divide stages over time to avoid contradictions.
  - Risk only amounts that allow you to maintain your business.

- **Seeking Luck**:
  - Increase the number of bets.
  - Don't risk all capital.
  - Experiment and explore the market.
  - Launch many small pilot projects in various areas or aspects of your business.

- **Large Bets**:
  - Amplify successful projects.
  - Operate on the "amplify the strong" principle.
  - Once a pilot project shows success, direct all resources to its development.

- **Locking in Profits**:
  - Sell successful projects or pull out money.
  - When a project reaches certain sizes, start extracting profit from it.
  - Start the process again with larger bets.

**Additional Recommendations**:
- Learn from your mistakes.
- Make morally right choices.
- Plan reserves for error correction.
- Follow the logic of the process to minimize mistakes.